It was late at night, and a car was swerving up and down the winding mountain road, nearly out of control. There was a sign indicating a sharp turn, but the car accidentally missed it, crashed into the guardrail, raced down the valley and burst into flames. Arriving at the scene of the traffic police said: must be too high speed, out of the headlights of the irradiation range.

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The irradiation path of automobile headlights is straight line, and the irradiation range is also limited. Excessive speed will make the safe distance of parking beyond the irradiation range of headlights. In case of dangerous situations, the driver has no time to react, which will cause such tragic events.

Even with high beams, car headlights have a limited range, as does “headlight range” in agile development. So as far as it can be predicted, pragmatic programmers follow a firm rule: “Take small steps, iterate fast.”

Keep running in small steps

1. Don’t take on big tasks

The idea is to break up a large requirement into several iterations that can be implemented in stages, taking small steps. Estimate the completion date of the task in the next few months; Guess what users will want in the future; Guess what new technology is available in the future. Such and such, undertaking a “too big” task will gradually exceed the scope of rationality, until out of control.

2. Rapid iteration of trial and error

First deliver an MVP that can be released online. Through THE MVP, we can also receive user feedback in time and adjust the direction of the product to meet market needs.

The final goal is reached in subsequent iterations. This allows quick trial-and-error in just one or two iterations to solve problems in the current iteration team, save costs, and prevent repeat mistakes.

3. Code is replaceable

Designing replaceable code, and replacing it in a controlled fashion, helps maintain future code and achieve better product design (highly cohesive, decoupled, DRY).

In Agile development, it is important to avoid going beyond the headlights because we can never see far into the future. And for the unpredictable future, be prepared to deal with black swans.

Beware of “Black Swans”

Until the 17th century, Europeans thought swans were all white, but this unshakable belief collapsed with the discovery of the first black swan in Australia. The black Swan is a metaphor for the unpredictability of everything. It is unexpected, but it changes everything.

Just like the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, this “black swan” has brought many small and medium-sized enterprises to a standstill. However, danger and opportunity always coexist, overcome the crisis is the opportunity. Some enterprises have found a new way to develop in the face of the epidemic by adapting to national policy support, optimizing internal work systems and exploring digital development methods.

Tomorrow will look a lot like today, but there are always exceptions. Plan for what we can see. For what we can’t see, consider the risks appropriately and pay attention to change.

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