I remember that in 2015, during the period of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation”, “Yahoo North Research laid off staff, Internet companies grabbed people”, “the school recruitment of 20W cabbage price, 30W new benchmark, 6, 70W will also have”, even at lunch, when I crossed a street from Wangjing SOHO, I was stuffed with at least three or four scanning code advertising bills. All in all, the impression is that the industry is booming and talent is in short supply.

So six years later, will programmers become more introverted? I think so, at least for the next five years, and here’s why:

Mature technical solutions

I believe that many students have seen the “Taobao Technology this Decade”, at that time, every step of the technical solution is to go on the road no one has walked before, rather than explore out, it is forced by the incremental business. From the earliest LAMP (Linux + Apache + MySQL + PHP) architecture, to Oracle RAC + IBM minicomputer database, to Java development language, MVC framework and iSearch search engine, From the self-developed TFS file system, Tair cache and DBRoute database and table, to the use of HSF as a service invocation framework, Notify as an asynchronous message notification, and TDDL to further database and table distribution + open platform era, each step is the wisdom and efforts of Ali people.

Nowadays, there are almost everything in the Spring family, various middleware emerge in an endless stream, and IaaS, PaaS and SaaS solutions based on cloud services have been perfected. The call for low code development has become increasingly high, and engineers often only need to introduce a JAR package, write a few lines of code, and call a few apis to solve many problems.

Then naturally, the technical depth requirements are not so high, the technical threshold is lowered.

The technical division of labor is unitary

I don’t know if you’re familiar with NIO’s Reactor model, which is a divide-and-rule plus event-driven approach. Divide and conquer means that a complete network processing process in a connection is generally divided into accept, Read, decode, Process, encode and send. Reactor mode maps each step into a Task. The minimum logical unit executed by the server thread is no longer a complete network request. It is a Task and executes in a non-blocking manner.

Before 2014, when I worked in JD and Qunar, the Java engineers in my department still needed to write front-end, and the business side needed to look at the data. They all wrote their own programs and ran numbers, or could use simple Hadoop, and there was no big data engineer in the department (BTW: Now a lot of companies, but thousands of orders a day, there are dozens of big data engineer, I also do not understand is a large amount of data, or large data fields), and in earlier, don’t even need to launch operations, all of our advance, if it is found that the query is slow, oneself go to online library to add a index, in brief personal jurisdiction is infinite, can be the matter.

Division of technology and development to the present, we really like the Task of Reactor model, online stuff there is operational, the database have DBA tube, have their own engineer before and after the end, write their own, the backend if involves some relatively complex data statistics, and big data engineer help, if there is a user feedback system problems, And tech support to block the wave.

It has to be said that this working mode, from the overall perspective of the company’s R&D team, must be right. The technical division of labor is unitary, so that everyone can be more dedicated and good at what they do, and the efficiency will definitely be improved.

So, naturally, the breadth of technology is not as high, and everyone is more fungible.

Sufficient technical personnel

It is well known that Internet engineers have relatively high salaries, with typical memes such as “Ali Male Dating” and “Bytecode”. Therefore, in the past five years, every year there will be more than one hundred thousand CS related professional fresh graduates into this industry, at the same time, other professional fresh graduates, or self-study, or sign up for a training class, are also scrambling to kill in this industry.

Of course, some people ask, although this industry earns more when young, but there is a phenomenon of 35 years old, unlike doctors, lawyers and teachers, the older the more popular, and there is a 996 situation, we do not consider these?

In fact, it is easy to explain, the general idea is that although there are 996 and 35 years old phenomenon, but the starting salary is high, basically a slingshot start, just like Huawei advocates, with human greed to overcome human laziness, make money first. Besides, the Internet industry promotes and repositions young people much more than any other industry. If you work hard, you will become the TECHNICAL director and VP early. Maybe you will start your own business, become the CEO, marry bai Fumei, and walk towards the peak of your life. Moreover, Zhang Ailing also said, “famous as early as possible, late words, happy is not so happy” it?

Therefore, in recent years, the Internet industry is like half a siege, outside the people want to come in, but inside the people do not want to go out, technical talent is certainly more and more sufficient.

The number of technical jobs decreased sharply

And now the Internet industry’s “public entrepreneurship innovation” basically has been cool, startups is much less than before, and online education is affected by ShuangJian policy this year, new Oriental, good future, education energetically, apes counseling, homework help, netease youdao, not only will not continue to hire people, it will release a lot of engineers. In addition to the recent collapse of Chinese stocks, the mainstream Internet companies are either not hiring, or if they are hiring, they will not have as many HCS as before, or they are filling some key positions, or they are high potential candidates with high value for money.

conclusion

To sum up, to put it plainly, there are more people, lower thresholds and fewer jobs, just like the continuous decline of pork prices, which has been oversupply, in this case, the next five years will not continue to roll.

How to treat inner volume?

Or, you can become a compound management talent who knows products, technology and management. Or become a recognized god in some technical field who can completely crush others. So, no matter how to roll, should not roll you.

What about the vast majority? Because it can’t all be tech executives and tech gods, because fairy tales are full of people.

Or, lower expectations, flat state of mind, calmly accept this volume, because the current volume of the industry is not much after all. Also, save more money.

Or, take stock of your strengths and resources and find out what you can do and excel at to make your life better. Also, save more money.