On the one hand, the barrier to entry for programmers is gradually disappearing, because there are more and more computer-related graduates every year. More and more students come out of IT training courses year by year; Programming courses on the Internet are also helping millions of people transition from zero-based software development…
On the other hand, programmers’ salaries, which can range from $20,000 to $30,000 to $30,000, are much higher than most technical jobs in other industries and seem bubbly.
Therefore, some people began to worry: the threshold is lower and lower, the bubble is bigger and bigger, 10 years later, we programmers will still have today’s income?
Today, let’s take a look at what programmer earnings are likely to look like ten years from now.
1 Industry Trend
Within a year or two, personal effort will make a big difference in whether you get a promotion and a raise in your salary. Five years, eight years, ten years or more, trends will far outweigh and even overwhelm individual efforts.
For example, 1978-2007 was the golden 30 years of China’s real estate reform (1978-1988 was the exploration stage, 1988-1998 was the promotion and deepening stage, 1998 stopped welfare housing distribution and started the era of housing commercialization). Vanke, Gindi, SOHO China, Poly Real Estate, It was at this stage that they started to follow the trend of national development, and many of their early employees were already successful. Related to this, a lot of real estate agents, also follow the trend, to obtain rich returns. And now, if you re-enter the real estate business, start from scratch, it is difficult to have a big development – because the real estate leap big development period has passed.
When you get into the right channel, the current will push you along at high speed, even if you don’t have to push hard.
This is the power of trend.
So what are the trends? Which industry is the right channel?
Let’s start with a picture:
The chart above shows the growth of industries in the United States over the past 200 years, from steamships in 1820 to the Internet in 1995. Domestic trends are similar to those in the United States, but a few years behind. The growth rate of each industry has gone through stages of growth, peaking and slow decline.
The accelerated development of China’s Internet, probably starting in 1997, the first is the PC to the Internet, then the mobile Internet, Internet + now, next iot, intelligence, wisdom, transit, artificial intelligence, all the way to flourish, despite twists and turns, big trend has never changed, the future a generalization and deepening, ten years eight years, positive trend!
As long as this trend continues, those working in related fields will not see their incomes fall.
National strategic planning
Will this trend change over the next decade or so? Just look at the country’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020).
The 13th Five-Year Plan covers the period from 2016 to 2020. The general direction of the plan is to accelerate the growth of strategic emerging industries and create new engines for economic and social development.
In strategic emerging industries, the most important is information technology industry and network economy. See below:
What does that mean? Information technology and network economy are the focus of the national strategic planning, and the national level will provide various policies, funds and resources to support its rapid and extensive development. Internet plus, big data and artificial intelligence will be top priorities.
Type on the blackboard and underline:
Developers are better off close to big data and artificial intelligence.
How long will this strategic plan be? 2030 (see the previous chart)! Thirteen years from now! That is to say, in the next decade or so, information technology and network economy will become the pillar and leading force of national economic development.
If you still have doubts, look at other state-planned new industries.
Although high-end equipment, new materials, aviation and rail transit do not belong to the Internet industry, which one is not software-based in its future development?
In the new energy industry, let’s look at new energy vehicles. Taking Tesla of electric vehicles as an example, it reconstructs old cars by means of “battery + software”. No doubt this model will evolve further in the future — Frankfurt 2017 has already sent plenty of signals:
Volkswagen Group has announced that its entire model lineup will be electrified by 2030 at the latest. BMW has announced it will offer 25 electric models by 2025, 12 of which will be all-electric. Mercedes said it will launch 10 new pure electric products in 2022, with new energy driven versions for all models and more than 50 electric models.
Therefore, the comprehensive transformation of automobile toward new energy is expected to be completed by 2030, which is the same as the time node of our country’s strategic planning. This transformation must be promoted in the way of “new energy + software”.
Related to this, automatic driving + intelligent transportation is still a comprehensive application of software, data and network.
Let’s look at another important direction proposed in the 13th Five-Year Plan — promoting the vigorous development of digital creative industries:
This direction now belongs to the realm of spiritual consumption described at the just-concluded 19th National Congress of the CPC.
Spiritual consumption in the next decade, will be more and more prominent, because the material is more abundant, even surplus, consumer demand is bound to cross the material level into the spiritual level. The big trend in mental consumption is digitization, digitalization, virtualization — think of how many hours a day you spend consuming your phone.
In addition, if you look at the learning and entertainment methods of primary and secondary school students, it is more certain: classes, homework digital; The rest of the time, play games on your phone or iPad! The next generation or two will grow up digital and virtual, and their lives will only become more digital and virtual. And digitization virtualization, depend on software necessarily.
3 conclusion
Based on the above analysis, we can conclude that in the next ten years, software, Internet, data, intelligence and other related fields will still be the development trend of The Times, and the average income of programmers supporting the development of these fields will still be much higher than that of other industries.