Analog estimation (start-up phase)
Look at the past and estimate the present. It’s an expert judgment, it’s a holistic estimate, it’s top-down
Parameter estimation (to determine the information with parameter inputs)
Estimates are made using statistical relationships between historical data and other variables. Key words: statistical relation, parameter model, basic data \color{red}{key words: statistical relation, parameter model, basic data
Top-down estimation
Estimated individual, layer by layer summary
Three estimates
Rough magnitude estimation
Accuracy is between -25% and 75%
CV, SV
CV: Cost deviation SV: Schedule deviation CV > 0,SV > 0 is a good thing CV < 0,SV < 0 is a bad thing CV = 0,SV = 0 plan
Sunk costs
Costs already incurred
The project budget
Project budget = management reserve + cost base = contingency reserve + work package cost estimation = Activity contingency reserve + activity cost estimation
Emergency stockpile
Use against known risks without increasing the cost base
Estimated costs
A process is the process of approximating the cost of the resources required to complete the project work
The opportunity cost
Opportunity cost refers to the fact that by choosing one project, you give up another, and that the abandoned project is likely to bring you the greatest benefit.
CPI
CPI=EV/AC, which is the value of each dollar spent
Direct costs
Costs that cannot be directly credited to a project but need to be shared between several projects or between the project and operations.