The preface

Before a project can be implemented, it is necessary to estimate how long it will take. The purpose is to:

  • Give the next level or the number of hours you know your project will require to determine if the project is worth carrying out.
  • Superiors can also use resources reasonably by estimating the working hours.
  • In terms of project outsourcing, we can estimate the time needed and make an overall quotation based on the unit price of working hours per person.
  • During the implementation of the project, periodical supervision can also be carried out according to the estimation table to promote the steady progress of the project. This paper mainly describes how to estimate without historical data, modify the estimate according to the reality during implementation, and summarize the failure of estimate.

1. Estimate and guess

No historical data

  • The lines

Derive and calculate according to other items. This project is similar to the other one, and then modified to fit the reality.

  • Put yourself in the shoes of a giant

Consult senior friends. Do not blindly estimate unfamiliar projects when you are not sure of them.

  • Rice field sampling method

Multiple estimate averaging method. For complex projects, multiple estimates need to be averaged.

  • Shannon’s law

Improve fault tolerance. People’s forecasts are often too optimistic. Increase the length appropriately according to your past situation. Personally, IF I estimate 100 days, I usually report 120 days to my superiors. It’s usually done between 110 and 120.

* Historical data is available

The projects I have done have a better grasp of the difficulty of the project. It should be noted that the environment and personal ability change, and the required man-hours change. Suggestions are as follows: through speculating replay, complete replay, to consider what happened, what uncertainty factors, the completion of the task, whether it is worth inheriting. What if the mission had happened today, more or less.

2. Perform

  • First estimate: Conventional estimate:

See 1. Forecast guesses

  • Second estimate: Revised estimate:

After the work starts, unexpected situations may be found. Re-evaluate and modify the schedule according to the actual situation.

  • Third estimate: Final estimate:

Failure: Go back and reconsider. If it’s serious, you need to report it to your supervisor and ask for help.

3. Causes of failure

  • Self:

    Lack of prediction ability and lack of rigor, see 1. Prediction guess

  • Insufficient job requirements:

For example: not enough basic knowledge – didn’t finish the vue documentation, resulting in not enough API knowledge; Want to do a login page results, results have been stuck in the bug check error; This time: Another task needs to be created and performed – to understand the working document

  • High work intensity | | complexity:

For example, failing to break down the work to the extent that you can correctly predict it; Development is stuck because business logic is not sorted out

Afterword.

Due to face, many novices do not regularly feed back their demands for help. When the leader finally comes to inquire about the progress, he hesitates, which has seriously hindered the progress of the project. In the implementation of the project, to establish a reasonable supervision and feedback mechanism, such as: the project needs a month, every other review progress, feedback to the superior. If the project is harder than you thought, ask your supervisor for help, or ask for more time. Remember that by the end of the deadline, the project is not done, and lost their credibility.

The resources

Illustration of the Pomodoro Technique