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Source/Tencent Technology (ID: QQTech)
Author/Li Haidan
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5G has become one of the most important technologies in 2019, as countries increase their investment in 5G research and development and continue to test it commercially. What are the application scenarios of 5G? How will telecom manufacturers and Internet enterprises change in the 5G era? What should China do in the 5G era?
Tencent technology recently launched “5G forum” series planning, inviting industry experts, corporate executives, investors and many other well-known figures, detailed interpretation of various questions about 5G. The sixth issue: Wu Jun, winner of wenjin Book Award and venture capitalist in Silicon Valley (see the end of the first five issues for recommendation).
Tencent News 5G page card has been launched. Open Tencent News APP, click “+” in the upper right corner, click “5G” in selected channels and drag to sort, you can get 5G page card. The latest information, in-depth interpretation and comprehensive evaluation about 5G are here.
Guest Profile:
Jun Wu, winner of the Wenjin Book Award, silicon Valley venture capitalist and director of Johns Hopkins University School of Engineering; He graduated from Tsinghua University and Johns Hopkins University with a PhD in computer science. He joined Google in 2002 and is the main designer of the current Google China, Japan and South Korea algorithm. Mr Wu joined Tencent in 2010 as vice president of search before returning to Google to run its computer question-and-answer programme. In 2014, he founded Fengyuan Venture Capital as a founding partner. He is the author of a number of bestselling books, including A General History of Global Science and Technology, The Age of Intelligence, Top of the Wave and The Beauty of Mathematics.
Now that THE 5G era has arrived and the pace of commercialization is accelerating, it is expected that this innovative technology will bring a new look to many traditional fields. In this regard, Tencent technology recently had a conversation with Wu Jun to interpret the industry development trend and business opportunities in the 5G era.
Wu jun said: “In fact, in the past few years, the ‘wind rising water’ enterprises, not new Internet companies, but mobile phone related companies. Such as mobile phone manufacturers Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo, OPPO and so on. Even many people think that some of the declining telecom equipment companies, such as Nokia, have done well in recent years because of the rapid growth of the telecom market.”
As for the future development trend of the industry, Wu Jun said: “At the arrival of 5G, the current computer network and telecommunications network will have a big integration, the industry will have a new reshuffle.”
The development of industrial Internet needs to be transformed and intelligentized through 5G and other cutting-edge technologies to promote industrial upgrading. According to Wu jun, the application of 5G is mainly reflected in two dimensions: on the one hand, smart cities will be activated. On the other hand, some commercial services that we could not see in the past will emerge to promote the development of smart industries. All of these aspects can promote human beings to better understand themselves, people can have a more reasonable arrangement and adjustment of their own life.
The following is the transcript of Tencent Technology dialogue with Wu Jun:
Tencent Technology: How do you understand 5G? What are the core points of concern?
Wu Jun: When it comes to 5G, there are a lot of reports about 5G phones and how fast they can be tested. But in fact, this is just a manifestation, not an essence.
I think there are three core issues that we need to focus on when it comes to 5G:
First question: why use 5G when 4G is enough? For example, we can watch hd video on 4G phones. The reason you can’t see more is because you’re in an area with no network coverage, and the easiest solution is to put a base station there.
Second question: what does 5G bring us, and how does it and 4G itself change technologically? Each generation of communication standards has a change. From an information theory point of view, why can’t 4G technology be improved? For example, in terms of Internet speed, if 4G is increased by 10 times, why do you have to start all over again?
Third question: Where are the business opportunities in 5G? What is the commercial potential? Or is it likely to be a loss-making business? Understanding these three issues is the main key to understanding 5G.
Tencent Technology: Just now you mentioned several key issues that we are concerned about. How do you understand our demand for 5G? Is 5G a big demand in the future?
Wu Jun: I think the demand for 5G is largely due to the development of mobile Internet to the “IoT era” stage. At this stage of development, the number of connected devices could be two orders of magnitude larger. According to conservative estimates, the number of IoT devices in the future will probably reach 50 billion globally.
Here we can refer to a data: the number of mobile phones in the world is almost 3 billion now. It can be said that in the development stage of IoT, household smart devices and smart cars also join the camp. The demand of this magnitude is very large, so there is a higher demand for the network. However, this demand for 4G is not good to meet, for example, there are a lot of devices to surf the Internet at the same time, and the processing speed is not slow, there is a higher demand for concurrent processing capacity, 4G bandwidth can not be done, it needs a new way of communication.
One trend is the convergence of next-generation communication networks. From the development of 1G to 4G, the communication network is a process of continuous convergence.
In the early days there were two separate communications-mobile networks and home fixed-line telephones-that did not overlap at first. The fixed-line network is arranged by traditional telecom operators represented by AT&T and China Telecom. The mobile network was done by Nokia, MOTOROLA, and China Mobile. At first, there was a conflict of interest. The two were separate, but after the development of 4G network, the two networks are basically integrated. Then, at the time of 5G arrival, there will be a big convergence of the current computer network and telecommunications network, and the industry will have a new reshuffle.
Tencent Technology: In your opinion, in the development of 5G, which fields or industries will be highlighted first, and which scenarios and applications will be activated first?
Wu Jun: There are two dimensions: on the one hand, smart cities will be activated, the whole city will be like a “big machine”, and the convenience of the city will be higher. On the other hand, there will be some commercial services that we haven’t seen in the past.
From the perspective of the composition of smart city, the first thing is the improvement of the Internet of vehicles and industries related to autonomous driving. With the high speed and low delay performance of 5G, smart cars will be safer and more reliable and gradually become People’s Daily use of transportation. The other is smart medical treatment. Through the digital management and upgrading of medical treatment, people can more reasonably monitor their own health status and do a better job of disease prevention. According to the current data, prevention contributes 80% to the prolongation of human life, while treatment only contributes 20%.
All of these aspects contribute to a better understanding of ourselves. People can have a more reasonable arrangement and adjustment of their own life, and better manage themselves. In addition, the changes of these smart industries will also drive the development of other industries, which is the main reason why the industry said that “5G will also drive GDP greatly”.
Other application scenarios, such as intelligent agriculture and intelligent breeding market, also have huge spatial market and can be well applied. In the era of industrial Internet, 5G and other cutting-edge technologies should be used to transform and digitized to promote industrial upgrading.
Tencent Technology: What do you think are the potential business scenarios from this development trend?
Wu Jun: Now we are in the era of the “third generation Internet”, which is also the “IoT era”.
The first generation of the Internet used to be computers and the networking of computers, such as the Internet on a home PC.
The second generation of the Internet era is mainly mobile Internet, realizing “people to people” connection. Mobile phones have replaced people and even computers, and network lines have been replaced by virtual channels in the air. The Internet of mobile terminal is more about the interconnection between people.
The third generation Internet is where any two things in the world can connect to the Internet. Not only cars, but also home appliances, people, etc., will be part of IoT, part of the “Internet of Everything”.
In terms of market size, the global Internet industry is developing rapidly. If we look at the development of the previous years, the turnover of the Internet industry worldwide is about 380 billion US dollars in 2016, for example. Of course, Google alone accounts for nearly a third of this pie, and tech giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, Facebook and Amazon together account for about 80% of the pie. However, during the same period, the world’s communications market, including telecom manufacturers, operators and so on, their revenue is 3.5 trillion DOLLARS, an order of magnitude larger than the Internet.
In fact, in the past few years, the “wind rising water” enterprises, not new Internet companies, but mobile phone related companies. Such as mobile phone manufacturers Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo, OPPO and so on. Many people even thought that some of the declining telecom equipment companies, such as Nokia, had done well in recent years, mainly because of the rapid growth of the telecom market.
From the perspective of the development opportunities of the industry, it is the integration of the Internet and communication network, which can allow Internet companies to take a very large market. This will also be a new growth point for Internet companies. Telecom companies can also find new value-added services. By the most conservative estimates, the world’s two markets combined could at least double to $8 trillion by 2030, which is why 5G is so important.
Tencent Technology: In your opinion, in the development trend of large-scale application and popularization of 5G, which subdivided application fields may breed some relevant unicorns in the short term in the future?
Wu Jun: From the development process of mobile Internet to IoT, related technology companies will have great advantages. For example, those who master operating systems and core chips will benefit the most. For example, during the development stage of the first generation of Internet, Microsoft and Intel benefited, while during the development stage of the second generation, Google, ARM and so on. By the third generation, there will be companies that make 5G chips, such as Huawei and so on.
The other beneficiaries are the major equipment vendors. In the PC era, HP, Dell, Lenovo, Acer and so on, but in the mobile development stage, it is different, because the genes of the previous generation are not suitable for the development of the second generation of mobile Internet, so the rise of another group of companies, such as Xiaomi, Huawei, Samsung and so on.
Therefore, based on these trends, the company that can make relevant IoT devices in the 5G era will definitely be a unicorn.
Tencent technology: What do you think the current investment scale and magnitude of 5G will be? How to consider the entry time for investment in 5G related industries?
Wu Jun: In terms of the overall investment scale, let’s look at the data of the United States first, except for the “Internet bubble” in 2000, the scale of venture investment in the United States was about 100 billion US dollars. The next peak, in 2001, was about $80 billion, and it hasn’t been exceeded since. For the rest of the decade, it was around $30 billion. The year 2017 is also the year of mass entrepreneurship and innovation in China. It will be a peak year of growth, with an estimated value of us $70 billion.
Compared with other countries, The scale of China’s venture capital market has taken up a high proportion, and the relevant policy encouragement and vigorous support are also very large. For example, in 2017, wuhan city government led to raise and finance about 180 billion yuan in order to invest in emerging industries, which shows the capacity of China’s investment market. Therefore, the following industrial financing related to 5G should not be difficult on the basis of such support, but the premise should also be a good project. For venture capital, the first investment is to invest in people, and then examine the company’s project. The same is true for 5G. 5G is a good outlet, but it is the “good” companies that can survive, not the ones that can only survive in the outlet.
Phase to select
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