Please refer to the original article | Bruce Lee (reproduced)
Wechat official account: BruceLee, BCH enthusiast
sequence
In the BCH wechat group, everyone talked about the prediction of THE price of BCH in the future. I said that BCH could increase by 100 times in the next three years. Many people said they couldn’t imagine it/it was impossible, so we reasoned whether it was possible.
The definition of a 100-fold increase in three years
In fact, the lowest price of BCH fell to 75 dollars, but the trading volume at that price was very small. Let’s make a round number, starting with 100 dollars. From March 2019 to March 2022, the price of BCH reached 10,000 dollars. If the price of multiple major platforms reaches $10,000, the antenna of one platform does not count.
Is $10,000 an exaggeration
Let’s look at it in three ways
1 As the current leader of the currency circle, bitcoin’s market value in the last bull market reached $20,000, so if BCH can reach $10,000 in a few years, it is no exaggeration, after all, Bitcoin has already reached $20,000.
2 BCH itself peaked at $4000 at the peak of the last bull market. So it’s no exaggeration to say that the next bull market, BCH, is 2.5 times the last one. Keep in mind that each bull market high for bitcoin has been 10 + times the last bull market high
The price of $310,000 only needs to be achieved, and it does not require a long time to maintain, which is much more difficult.
Will BCH survive the next bull market
BCH to reach $10,000, that has to be in a bull market to be possible. So will BCH survive the next bull market?
BCH is now the sixth largest by market cap and is traded on all major exchanges, no problem in major currencies. The BCH community is alive and kicking, with new apps popping up, offline gatherings, and developers updating their code quickly.
So BCH has a 100% chance of surviving the next bull market
Will there be a bull market in three years
It’s not enough for BCH to survive the next bull market, because I said “100 times in three years”, so if you don’t get a bull market in three years, BCH won’t be able to achieve that goal. So will there be a bull market in three years? Let’s look at it in two ways:
1 the whole coin circle is in the early stage of development, and this characteristic determines that the conversion cycle of the coin circle is much faster than that of the mature stock market. After all, the market value of the entire currency circle is only more than 130 billion DOLLARS, adding up is not as much as the market value of a large listed company. A smaller market cap means fewer leeks are needed, so leeks take much less time to grow than traditional stock markets. Now the coin circle has been bear for almost one year and three months, it is absolutely impossible to bear for three consecutive years, then the total will be more than four years, in violation of the law of the capital market.
2 Now there is a “stupid consensus” in the bitcoin community that if bitcoin production halves, a bull market will surely start. Bitcoin has historically enjoyed huge bull markets after halving twice, in 2012 and 2016. The next halving is expected in late May 2020. Now many people in the coin circle believe that the next bull market in the coin circle will start after May 2020.
In fact, there is some truth to this “stupid consensus”. Since the supply and demand of Bitcoin will immediately break the balance after the production is halved, the price will gradually start to rise as the number of new coins mined becomes 900 from 1,800 without changing the amount of money received each day. Higher prices will encourage more speculative capital to follow suit, leading to a further imbalance between supply and demand, which will push prices higher. The price rise is the best advertisement, countless outside the circle leek or have left the market before the wait-and-see players, will be “profit effect” to attract back, starting a new round of great bull market.
Of course, this is just a prediction, and the bull market could start before bitcoin halves.
conclusion
In fact, BCH 100 times in three years is only a reasonable forecast, the next bull market will certainly appear many more than 100 times the rise of the currency, individual currency may even exceed 1000 times. Hold on to your money and wait for the bull market to come.