Last year, 8K was all the rage. At CES, NAB, and IBC trade shows, there were many products and discussions related to the upcoming 8K revolution. It’s an important part of an industry built on technological advances and a desire to move on to the next big thing. Also this year, CES showcased 8K displays from Samsung, LG, Sharp and others, which have become the TV supplier’s latest flagship product.

The text/Adrian Pennington

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Any discussion of 8K is going to drive enthusiast enthusiasm for the possibilities of ultra-high resolution, with some people pushing the limits of UHD and others feeling that 4K is just too sharp for them. The truth is that 8K is not going to die like 3D, but the TV market has its own ideas about how technology should be used, and to launch a product just for the sake of a new technology is to put the cart before the horse. According to Jobs, there should be demand first, then the technology should be developed, and then the product should be released.

The plain truth is that 8K TVs occupy only a niche market right now and are likely to remain so for the next decade or more. At the same time, the possibility of using 8K as a production and delivery format is increasing. At some point in the future, both will have to happen as costs come down across the board.

Samsung introduced its QLED 8K TVs at CES 2019, and 8K was once again the talking point at CES 2020.

Zero correlation

Globally, they shipped more than half of their 4K UHDTVs for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to data from IHS Markit. In North America, about a third of households have UHDTVs. By 2021, that number will be more than half, and by 2023, it will be 64%.

By 2023, 46% of households in Western Europe are expected to own UHDTVs, a growth rate that will be faster than in China because they will be able to replace TVs faster. However, China will lead the world in the adoption of 8K monitors in 1.4 million homes this year.

By the way, there is not much value in owning 8K TVs in China. Instead, people buy 8K TVs more as a status symbol, in part because of their larger size. There’s actually only one TV channel in the world that broadcasts 8K, and it’s in Japan. By this summer, 62,000 people in Japan will be able to watch NHK’s coverage of the Tokyo Olympics in 8K Ultra HD format. Isn’t that surprising? For a country of 50 million people, where only 0.1% of the population has the capacity to install 8K TVs locally, it’s not really possible.

“Japan is clearly lagging behind in this regard due to its preference for smaller screen sizes,” said Maria Rua Aguete, executive director of IHS Markit. By 2020, only 19 percent of Japanese households will have UHDTVs, compared with 32 percent by 2023. Despite Ultra HD 4K and 8K broadcasting, most of Japan will still be dependent on HD and SD in 2023.”

The installed base for 8K TVs is very small. “There is no correlation between content and product,” says Rua Aguete. In other words, the industry could send as many 8K screens into Ether as it wanted, but broadcasters didn’t take the bait.

Screens larger than 65 inches are considered to offer the best 8K viewing experience in the home, and screen sizes are getting bigger worldwide. However, due to the impact of logistics and installation, these factors may affect its sales.

IHS Markit estimates that it costs twice as much to package, ship and deliver a 75-inch TV as a 65-inch one, because it takes two people to move it to your home.

While half of all UK homes should have 4K screens by 2022 (the percentage of 4K TVs adopted is comparable to the historical percentage of HDTV sales), analysts are still extremely cautious about 8K adoption, predicting that by 2023, Three million 8K TVs will be sold worldwide (of which only 625,000 will be sold in Western Europe).

Speaking at the UK DTG Group meeting in October, Paul Gray, head of technology research and analysis at IHS Markit, said: “We think the 8K looks like an over-sample rate display, but its SD is not high enough, so the sweet spot is somewhere in between.”

Content producers may agree that high dynamic range (HDR) provides more visual impact than resolution, but it will take some time for viewers to understand that more pixels means better pixels.

“We’re going to pay more for a 6-inch phone than a 60-inch TV,” said Frode Hernes, senior vice president of core products at VeWD. “And it’s going to last a lot longer.” “The TVs are so cheap, but they’re so much more complicated to produce, and we want them to be as smooth and as good as a phone. But that’s not realistic.”

If the TV industry can innovate its way out of its current cycle of low-yielding scale replacement, it has a chance. One answer may lie in new form factors, such as scrollable, modular or wallpaper displays, which were already prototyped at the recent CES.

Actual screen area available

On top of that, the TV itself is expanding to include controls like artificial intelligence, voice control and a smart home.

The size of the display may be large in order to accommodate multiple use cases within the screen area. For that reason, 8K resolution will be of little use to viewers who are simply watching content in full screen, and more useful to viewers who are watching 4K shows on one part of the screen and using apps like video sharing on another. Other use cases might be instructive (for example, Google Maps video to show road conditions).

Computer vision is driving the improvement in image quality, and it is one of the solutions to expand low-resolution content input to 8K as screens enter the market. Alan Delaney, director of international business development and marketing for TV chipmaker Hisilicon, explained to DTG: “We can use AI to dynamically check content input in real time and improve it so you don’t have to throw away trash anymore.”

With limited available markets in terms of display and distribution channels, there is currently no incentive for premium content producers to master 8K programming.